Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink....

CONFLICTS over water are ancient. According to the US-based Pacific Institute which specializes in water policy, water conflict appears to have occurred for the first time 4,500 years ago when a king named Urlama diverted water through canals to deprive the enemy of water. More recently, climate change and scarcity of water resulting from a drought between 2006 and 2011 and the consequent crop failures encouraged discontent that led to Syria's civil war. Among those targeted were water resources consisting of, among others, attacks on water treatment plants in Aleppo and attacks in Iraq on local water systems.

The same Pacific Institute which regularly updates its water conflict chronology reports that in the past 10 years, there were more than 70 incidents, dozens of them deadly, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. In more recent years, many of the conflicts in which people have been killed over water have taken place in India. It happened during protests over dams and canals and some were farmer vs herder disputes. There were even instances when bandits announced they would kill people unless water is brought to them every day. A form of "water tax."

In the past, military conflict over water rights was a grave national security issue between and among countries: Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile; Botswana and Namibia over the Okavango; Israel, Palestine and Jordan over the Jordan River, to name a few.

Water from rivers in those countries cross political boundaries with the concomitant boundary issues. The situation created a natural interdependence between countries in sharing the water resource, drawing the people to work together on water availability aspect even when countries were officially at war.

Perhaps, water wars were averted those times due to the changing perception of permanent sovereignty over natural resources in favor of functional sovereignty, or equitable utilization of trans-boundary shared resources. But in light of the recent changed political and security environment, could peaceful negotiation over water issues still hold on for a much longer time?

Brewing water conflict in Asean

At this point, a situation which could be cited in the Asean region regarding possible conflicts over water is the great Mekong River.

China's damming of the source of water of the Mekong River has sparked serious concern among the downstream Asean countries, namely Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

In 1995, an Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin was signed by four Asean member riparian countries — Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. The agreement emphasizes joint development, ecological protection and dynamic process of water allocation. China and Myanmar have not signed the agreement but were designated Asean "dialogue partners" and have participated in various Mekong River-related activities. The institutional mechanism for ensuring cooperation in the Mekong River Basin is the Mekong River Commission, an international entity.

Almost simultaneously with efforts at sustainable development of the Mekong River Basin, China was constructing the popular Three Gorges Dam in Hubei province. After many years of construction accompanied by apprehension that the upper reaches of the Mekong River would significantly alter the downstream flow regimes, the giant dam's operation revealed in 2019 that the water levels in the 4,880-kilometer-long river fell to their lowest in more than 100 years. This was despite the fact that the monsoon season stretches from May to September.

NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) lead in objections to more Chinese-backed dams in the Mekong, which they blame for the frequent and extreme droughts in downriver countries as government officials in the affected countries are mindful of trade and investment flows from China. Specifically, the NGOs accused China of lack of transparency in water management policies.

At the vortex of the problem is China's provision of relevant and acceptable data to the Mekong riparian countries for the latter to be able to accurately assess the impact of the dams on water flows. Actually, it brings to fore the newfound reliance of downstream countries on Chinese goodwill and, at the same time, highlights China's "development approach" to Mekong water conflicts.

It will be recalled that China's dam construction to divert water for its own use to harness energy and open up agricultural areas to attain food security for its own overgrown population preceded the launch of its Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. Perhaps, it can be surmised that the change in China's trans-boundary water policy in the Mekong region is a pivot point for its opening up to Southeast Asia.

Water cooperation is listed in the Lancang Mekong Cooperation (LMC) — the Mekong River is called Lancang in China — mechanism. China claims the country is intent on transforming water resources cooperation into a flagship cooperation under LMC.

Despite efforts at many cooperative projects between China and each of the Mekong countries, the year 2019 marked the realization that China's "development approach" presented both opportunities and risks.

Of late, attention is on the contested hydropower governance in the Mekong River basin, referring to the Laos government's proposed hydropower dams for the mainstream of the Mekong River. While the process opened up spaces for international scrutiny over these proposed projects, it has also been criticized by civil society as a "rubber stamp" for dams that will have trans-boundary impacts on the livelihoods and food security of millions living across the lower Mekong basin.

Fortunately, the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses is now in effect. (Vietnam ratified it in 2014 and is the only Mekong state to do so.) Currently, it is the key source of international law governing the use of trans-boundary freshwater rivers. It signals to states the primacy of international water law principles and procedures and the importance of respecting them. It was developed with the clear intention of supporting other treaties like the 1995 Agreement on Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River basin by acting as a template and filling the gaps where coverage is lacking.

The old, reliable, National Geographic, confirms that in theory, there is enough water in the world for everyone but '"like oil or diamonds, it is not dispersed democratically." Canada, Russia, Brazil, Peru and Colombia have an abundance to the tune of 40 percent of water on planet Earth. The United States has a decent amount. India and China, which have a third of the world's population have less than a 10th of its fresh water and they use the same faster than rain or groundwater can replenish it.

To think that nearly all water on earth is salty; less than 3 percent is fresh. Two-thirds of all fresh water we have is frozen in the earth's cold places as ice or permafrost, leaving less than 1 percent of the world's total water for all living things.

The simplest water-connected hardship to invoke are hunger and thirst. Half a gallon of drinking water is what a person needs to drink to stay alive. A survey in 2015 of members of the World Economic Forum in Davos listed "water crisis" for the first time as the world's leading threat ahead of "spread of infectious diseases" and "weapons of mass destruction." Chillingly significant as we experience the Covid pandemic.

Five years ago, Pope Francis, speaking at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, wondered "if we are not on the path toward a great world war over water?"

Considering the dire useful water availability described above and the possible conflicts over water in other parts of the world (i.e., Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam in the Nile River involving Egypt which feels it is now at the mercy of its neighbors Sudan and Ethiopia), will water ultimately cause war or will it be used as a weapon of war?